ADB cuts Asia, China’s 2015, 2016 growth forecasts

Source: Economic Times

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cut its 2015 and 2016 growth forecasts for China and the rest of Asia, largely as a result of the slower than expected growth in the region’s largest economy and in developed economies elsewhere.

Developing Asia is now expected to grow 6.1 per cent and 6.2 per cent this year and in 2016 against the ADB’s March forecast of 6.3 per cent for both years, the bank said in its 2015 outlook supplement released on Thursday.

Growth in East Asia is still seen as subdued with lower-than-forecast output across the region. China’s growth is seen moderating to 7.0 per cent this year and 6.8 per cent in 2016 compared to March estimates of 7.2 per cent and 7.0 per cent, the bank said.

The ADB raised slightly its 2015 forecast for South Asia to 7.3 per cent against 7.2 per cent in March, as an expected strong outturn in Bangladesh offsets weak growth in disaster-hit Nepal and with India’s economy seen supported by strong farm growth and fresh investments.

Southeast Asia’s growth is seen a shade weaker at 4.6 per cent this year and 5.1 per cent next year compared to March estimates of 4.9 per cent and 5.3 per cent following disappointing economic output in the region so far this year, the ADB said.

Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, is expected to grow at 5.0 per cent this year before rising to 5.6 per cent in 2016, lower than

March estimates of 4.9 per cent and 5.3 per cent, as reforms of the new government take time to materialise and state spending slowed.
Inflation in the region in 2015 is now forecast to be a slightly lower at 2.4 per cent, compared to the 2.6 per cent seen in March.


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